Altseason Indicators: How to Time Altcoin Season
Altseason is when fortunes are made—and lost. Learn to read the signs, time your rotation, and know when to take profits before it ends.
- Altseason = when alts outperform BTC. Watch BTC dominance, ETH/BTC ratio, and Altcoin Index.
- Rotation flows: BTC → ETH → Large caps → Mid caps → Small caps/memes. Enter early, exit before memes peak.
- Thrive tracks altseason indicators and alerts you when rotation signals trigger.
Altseason Indicator Dashboard
Click through different market phases to understand the altseason cycle:
58%
25
BTC dominance is rising—capital is flowing from alts to Bitcoin. This typically happens early in bull markets or during risk-off periods. Hold BTC, avoid altcoin exposure. Wait for dominance to top before rotating.
What Is Altseason?
Altseason is a market phase where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin. During these periods, capital rotates from BTC to alternative cryptocurrencies, and gains of 100-500%+ on individual alts are common.
Altseasons typically occur during mature phases of bull markets. The pattern is predictable:
- BTC leads: Bitcoin rallies first, drawing in new capital
- BTC consolidates: BTC hits resistance and moves sideways
- Rotation begins: Profits rotate to ETH and large-cap alts
- Full altseason: Mid-caps and small-caps explode
- Blow-off top: Memes and micro-caps have parabolic moves
- BTC moves: BTC pumps or dumps, capital rushes back, altseason ends
Understanding where we are in this cycle is the key to altseason profits.
BTC Dominance: The Primary Indicator
BTC dominance is Bitcoin's market cap as a percentage of total crypto. It's the most important altseason indicator.
- High dominance (55%+): Capital concentrated in BTC. Alts underperforming. Bitcoin season.
- Falling dominance: Capital leaving BTC for alts. Altseason beginning.
- Low dominance (40-42%): Peak altseason territory. Alts have captured significant market share.
- Rising dominance: Capital returning to BTC. Altseason ending. Exit alts.
The key is watching the trend, not the absolute level. Dominance falling from 55% to 50% is more significant than a stable 45%. Rate of change matters.
Warning: Dominance can fall for wrong reasons—like BTC crashing. Check if dominance is falling because alts are rising (good) or because everything is falling and alts are falling less (bad). Context matters.
ETH/BTC Ratio: The Rotation Signal
The ETH/BTC ratio shows Ethereum's performance relative to Bitcoin. ETH is the gateway to altcoins—it typically leads alt rotation.
- Rising ETH/BTC: Risk appetite increasing. Rotation to alts beginning.
- Falling ETH/BTC: Flight to quality. BTC preferred. Not altseason.
- ETH/BTC breaking resistance: Strong signal that altseason is starting.
Historical pattern: ETH/BTC bottoms before altseason, rises during altseason, then rolls over as capital returns to BTC. Watch for higher lows on ETH/BTC as an early signal.
| Phase | BTC Dominance | ETH/BTC | What to Do |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Season | Rising/High (55%+) | Falling | Hold BTC, avoid alts |
| Early Rotation | Starting to fall | Bottoming | Start building alt positions |
| Altseason | Falling (45-50%) | Rising | Ride alts, take profits on rallies |
| Peak Altseason | Low (40-42%) | Extended high | Take profits aggressively |
| Exhaustion | Bottoming/rising | Rolling over | Exit alts to BTC or stable |
Altseason Index: Confirmation Tool
The Altseason Index measures how many top 50 altcoins outperformed BTC over 90 days.
- Index above 75: Altseason confirmed. Most alts beating BTC.
- Index 25-75: Neutral zone. Selective alt outperformance.
- Index below 25: Bitcoin season. Most alts underperforming.
Important: The Altseason Index is a lagging indicator—it confirms what already happened, not what's about to happen. By the time it hits 75, much of the move has occurred. Use it for confirmation, not early entry signals.
Altseason Rotation Strategy
Capital rotates through crypto in a predictable sequence. Understanding this flow helps you position ahead of the crowd.
Phase 1: BTC Leads
Bitcoin rallies while alts lag. Hold BTC, don't chase alts. Dominance rising. This phase can last weeks to months.
Phase 2: ETH Catches Up
BTC consolidates, ETH starts outperforming. Rotate some BTC to ETH. ETH/BTC ratio rising. This is your first rotation signal.
Phase 3: Large Caps Rally
SOL, AVAX, and top 20 alts rally. Rotate ETH profits to quality large caps. Look for coins with narratives (AI, L2s, etc.). Still relatively safe.
Phase 4: Mid Caps Explode
Top 50-100 coins have 2-5x moves. Higher risk but higher reward. Take profits from large caps, allocate small portion to mid-caps. Be selective.
Phase 5: Small Caps and Memes
This is peak altseason—and peak risk. Meme coins pump 10-50x. Small caps go parabolic. This phase is short and ends violently. If you play, use tiny size and take profits fast.
Phase 6: Exit
When memes are making headlines and everyone is a genius, start exiting. Rotate back to BTC or stables. Don't try to time the exact top—leave money on the table.
How to Know Altseason Is Ending
Altseason endings are brutal. Alts can drop 30-50% in days. Watch for these signals:
- BTC dominance stops falling: The first sign. Rotation is slowing.
- ETH/BTC rolls over: ETH losing ground to BTC signals risk-off.
- Large caps lagging: When SOL/AVAX stop leading, the party is ending.
- Memes going vertical: Parabolic meme moves often mark the top.
- Mainstream media coverage: When normies are buying memes, exit.
- Funding rates extreme: Sky-high funding on alts = crowded longs = reversal coming.
Better to exit early than late. The last 20% of altseason gains aren't worth the 50% drawdown that follows.
Common Altseason Mistakes
- Rotating too early: Buying alts during Bitcoin season. Wait for signals.
- Going 100% alts: Never abandon BTC entirely. Keep a core position.
- Chasing memes early: Memes pump last. Don't buy them in phase 2.
- Not taking profits: Altseason gains are only real if you sell. Take profits progressively.
- Holding through the end: Most altseason gains evaporate in the aftermath.
- Fighting dominance trends: If dominance is rising, don't buy alts. Wait.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is altseason?
Altseason (altcoin season) is a market phase where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin. During altseason, capital rotates from BTC to alts, and many altcoins can gain 50-500%+ while BTC moves sideways or slowly up. It typically occurs during mature phases of bull markets.
What is BTC dominance?
BTC dominance is Bitcoin's market cap as a percentage of total crypto market cap. High dominance (55%+) indicates BTC strength and usually precedes altseason. Falling dominance indicates capital flowing to altcoins—altseason may be starting.
How do I know when altseason is starting?
Key signals: (1) BTC dominance declining from local highs, (2) ETH/BTC ratio rising, (3) Large-cap alts (ETH, SOL) outperforming BTC, (4) Altcoin Index above 50, (5) Social media hype shifting from BTC to alts. Early rotation to large caps precedes full altseason.
What is the Altseason Index?
The Altseason Index measures how many of the top 50 altcoins have outperformed BTC over the past 90 days. Above 75 = Altseason. Below 25 = Bitcoin Season. Between 25-75 = Neutral. It's a lagging indicator—useful for confirmation, not early signals.
How long does altseason last?
Altseasons typically last 4-8 weeks at peak intensity, though the broader alt-favorable period can last months. They end abruptly when BTC makes a strong move (up or down) and capital floods back. Always have exit plans—altseason endings are violent.
Should I sell BTC for alts during altseason?
Rotating some BTC to alts during altseason can maximize gains, but it's risky. Alts are more volatile and altseason ends quickly. A safer approach: keep a BTC core position and use only a portion for alt rotation. Never go 100% alts.
What typically happens after altseason?
Altseason usually ends with BTC making a sharp move. If BTC pumps, capital rushes back. If BTC dumps, alts dump harder (2-3x BTC's move). Either way, dominance rises. The safest play is taking profits before the end—not timing the exact top.
Which alts perform best during altseason?
Rotation typically flows: BTC → ETH → Large caps (SOL, AVAX) → Mid caps → Small caps/memes. Early altseason favors quality large caps. Peak altseason favors high-beta small caps and memes. Late altseason is extremely risky—stick to large caps or exit.