Crypto Trading Journal Metrics That Matter
Raw P&L tells you if you made money. Metrics tell you why—and whether it will continue. This guide covers every metric worth tracking, with formulas, benchmarks, and practical advice on which ones actually predict trading success.
- Expectancy (expected profit per trade) is the most important metric—positive expectancy means you have an edge.
- Win rate alone is misleading. Focus on the combination of win rate and risk:reward ratio.
- Track metrics by dimension: strategy, emotion, time of day. Overall numbers hide important patterns.
- Thrive auto-tracks your trades along with your emotions and calculates all these metrics automatically.
The Metrics Hierarchy
Not all metrics are equally important. Some give you deep insight; others are noise. Here's how to prioritize:
Tier 1: Essential
- • Expectancy
- • Win Rate
- • Risk:Reward Ratio
- • Profit Factor
Tier 2: Important
- • Maximum Drawdown
- • Average Win/Loss
- • Consecutive Wins/Losses
- • Recovery Factor
Tier 3: Advanced
- • Sharpe Ratio
- • Sortino Ratio
- • R-Multiples
- • Trade Duration Stats
Tier 4: Dimensional
- • Metrics by Strategy
- • Metrics by Emotion
- • Metrics by Time
- • Metrics by Market
Win Rate: The Most Misunderstood Metric
Win rate is simple to calculate but easy to misinterpret. It's the percentage of trades that made money.
Formula: Win Rate = (Winning Trades / Total Trades) × 100
Why Win Rate Alone Is Dangerous
Consider two traders:
- Trader A: 80% win rate, average win $50, average loss $300
- Trader B: 35% win rate, average win $400, average loss $100
Trader A wins 80% of trades but loses money overall. Why? Because when they lose, they lose big. Expectancy calculation:
- Trader A: (0.80 × $50) - (0.20 × $300) = $40 - $60 = -$20 per trade
- Trader B: (0.35 × $400) - (0.65 × $100) = $140 - $65 = +$75 per trade
This is why win rate must always be considered alongside risk:reward ratio.
Win Rate Benchmarks
- Below 30%: Very low—need very high risk:reward (3:1+) to profit
- 30-40%: Trend-following typical—requires good risk:reward
- 40-50%: Common for many successful strategies
- 50-60%: Above average—solid with any decent risk:reward
- Above 60%: High—ensure you're not cutting winners early
Win Rate & Expectancy Calculator
Enter your trading statistics to calculate your key metrics. This will tell you whether your strategy has a real edge:
Win Rate
70.0%
Risk:Reward
1:2.50
Expectancy
$145.00
Profit Factor
5.83
What this means: Your strategy is profitable. On average, you make $145.00 per trade. With 10 trades, your expected profit is $1450.00.
Expectancy: The Most Important Metric
Expectancy tells you how much money you can expect to make, on average, per trade.It's the single number that determines whether your trading is sustainable.
Formula: Expectancy = (Win Rate × Average Win) - (Loss Rate × Average Loss)
Where Loss Rate = 1 - Win Rate
Example Calculation
You have a 55% win rate, average winners of $200, and average losers of $120.
- Win Rate: 0.55
- Loss Rate: 0.45
- Expectancy = (0.55 × $200) - (0.45 × $120)
- Expectancy = $110 - $54 = $56 per trade
This means every trade you take has an expected value of $56. Over 100 trades, you expect to make around $5,600 (100 × $56).
Expectancy Benchmarks
- Negative: You're losing money. Stop trading this strategy.
- $0-20: Barely profitable. Fees and slippage may push you negative.
- $20-50: Decent edge. Sustainable with consistent execution.
- $50-100: Strong edge. Focus on increasing volume.
- $100+: Excellent edge. Consider if it's sustainable long-term.
Improving Expectancy
There are four levers:
- Increase win rate: Better entry selection, patience
- Increase average winner: Let winners run, trail stops
- Decrease average loser: Cut losses faster, tighter stops
- Improve all three: Overall trade quality improvement
Profit Factor: The Quick Check
Profit factor is the simplest way to see if you're profitable.
Formula: Profit Factor = Gross Profits / Gross Losses
Example
Over 50 trades, your total profits from winners were $8,500 and total losses from losers were $5,000.
- Profit Factor = $8,500 / $5,000 = 1.70
This means for every dollar you lose, you make $1.70.
Profit Factor Benchmarks
- Below 1.0: Losing money. Your losses exceed profits.
- 1.0-1.2: Break-even territory. Fees may push you negative.
- 1.2-1.5: Modestly profitable. Room for improvement.
- 1.5-2.0: Good profitability. Solid edge.
- 2.0-3.0: Excellent. Professional-level performance.
- Above 3.0: Either exceptional or insufficient sample size.
Risk:Reward Ratio
Risk:reward compares how much you make when you win to how much you lose when you lose.
Formula: Risk:Reward = Average Win / Average Loss
The Win Rate / Risk:Reward Trade-Off
There's typically an inverse relationship. Tight stops (higher risk:reward) mean getting stopped out more often (lower win rate). The key is finding the combination that produces positive expectancy.
| Win Rate | Min R:R for Breakeven | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 30% | 2.33:1 | Trend-following territory |
| 40% | 1.50:1 | Common swing trading |
| 50% | 1.00:1 | Coin flip needs 1:1 |
| 60% | 0.67:1 | Can profit with smaller winners |
| 70% | 0.43:1 | Scalping territory |
Performance Metrics Dashboard
Here's how your metrics should be visualized for quick pattern recognition:
Smart money building positions
Open Interest
↑ Rising
Volume
● High
Funding Rate
~ Neutral
Price Action
→ Sideways
Large players are accumulating. Rising OI with stable price suggests new positions are being built. Watch for a breakout.
Drawdown Metrics
Drawdown measures how much your account declines from a peak before recovering.
Maximum Drawdown
Formula: Max DD = (Peak - Trough) / Peak × 100
If your account went from $10,000 to $7,500 before recovering:
- Max Drawdown = ($10,000 - $7,500) / $10,000 × 100 = 25%
Why Drawdown Matters
Many traders focus on returns and ignore drawdown. But a 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain just to get back to even. Psychologically, most traders can't handle large drawdowns without making emotional mistakes.
Drawdown Benchmarks
- Under 10%: Very controlled risk. Conservative approach.
- 10-20%: Normal for active trading. Manageable.
- 20-30%: Getting uncomfortable. Review risk management.
- 30-50%: Serious. Many traders can't recover psychologically.
- Above 50%: Danger zone. Account may not survive.
Recovery Factor
Formula: Recovery Factor = Net Profit / Maximum Drawdown
If you made $5,000 net profit with $2,000 max drawdown:
- Recovery Factor = $5,000 / $2,000 = 2.5
This means your profits are 2.5x your worst decline. Higher is better—it shows you're making money efficiently relative to the risk you're taking.
R-Multiples: Thinking Like a Pro
R-multiples normalize returns by the risk you took. If you risked $100 and made $300, that's a 3R trade. If you risked $500 and made $300, that's 0.6R.
Why R-Multiples Matter
Dollar returns are misleading because they don't account for risk. A $200 win where you risked $50 (4R) is much better than a $200 win where you risked $400 (0.5R). R-multiples let you compare trades fairly.
Key R-Multiple Metrics
- Average R: Your expected R per trade. Should be positive.
- R Expectancy: Similar to dollar expectancy but normalized.
- Max R: Your biggest winner in risk units.
- Min R: Your biggest loser. Should be around -1R if using stops.
R-Multiple Benchmarks
- Average R below 0: Losing money. Edge is negative.
- Average R 0-0.2: Barely profitable. Fees hurt.
- Average R 0.2-0.5: Solid edge. Sustainable.
- Average R above 0.5: Strong edge. Excellent performance.
Advanced Metrics
Sharpe Ratio
Formula: Sharpe = (Average Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Standard Deviation
In crypto, we often use 0% as the risk-free rate. Sharpe measures return per unit of volatility. Higher is better.
- Below 0.5: Poor risk-adjusted returns
- 0.5-1.0: Acceptable
- 1.0-2.0: Good
- Above 2.0: Excellent (hard to sustain)
Sortino Ratio
Like Sharpe, but only penalizes downside volatility. More relevant for traders because upside volatility (big wins) shouldn't count against you.
Formula: Sortino = (Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Downside Deviation
Trade Duration Statistics
Track how long you hold trades and correlate with performance:
- Average hold time for winners vs. losers
- Win rate by duration (scalps vs. swings)
- Does holding longer improve or hurt results?
Dimensional Analysis: Where the Gold Is
Overall metrics hide crucial information. The real insights come from slicing your data by dimensions.
Metrics by Strategy
Calculate all core metrics for each strategy you trade:
- Which strategy has the highest expectancy?
- Which has the best profit factor?
- Which should you trade more? Less? Stop entirely?
Metrics by Emotional State
This is often the most revealing analysis:
- Win rate when "Confident" vs. "FOMO" vs. "Revenge"
- Expectancy by emotion
- Which emotions cost you the most money?
Metrics by Time
- Performance by hour of day
- Performance by day of week
- Performance in first hour vs. rest of session
Metrics by Market Condition
- Performance in trending vs. ranging markets
- Performance in high vs. low volatility
- Performance around news events
Common Metric Pitfalls
Small Sample Size
With 10 trades, your "65% win rate" could easily be random variance. You need 30+ trades for basic reliability, 100+ for confidence. Be cautious about conclusions from small samples.
Survivorship Bias
If you only journal winning trades, your metrics are meaningless. You need complete data—every trade, winners and losers.
Over-Optimization
Finding the "perfect" parameters that maximize backtested metrics often fails in live trading. Robust strategies show positive metrics across various conditions, not just optimized parameters.
Ignoring Fees
A strategy with $50 expectancy and $30 in fees per trade actually has $20 expectancy. Always calculate metrics including fees, especially for high-frequency strategies.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most important trading journal metric?
Expectancy is the most important metric because it tells you how much you can expect to make per trade on average. A positive expectancy means your strategy is profitable over time; negative means you're losing money. Expectancy combines win rate and risk:reward into one actionable number.
What is a good win rate for crypto trading?
Win rate alone is misleading. A 40% win rate with 3:1 risk:reward is highly profitable, while a 70% win rate with 0.3:1 risk:reward loses money. Focus on expectancy instead. Most profitable traders have win rates between 40-60% combined with positive risk:reward ratios.
How do I calculate trading expectancy?
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Average Win) - (Loss Rate × Average Loss). For example: 55% win rate, $200 average win, $100 average loss = (0.55 × $200) - (0.45 × $100) = $110 - $45 = $65 expected profit per trade.
What is profit factor and what's a good number?
Profit Factor = Gross Profits / Gross Losses. Above 1.0 means profitable. 1.5+ is good. 2.0+ is excellent. Below 1.0 means you're losing money. Profit factor is useful because it combines multiple metrics into one number that shows overall profitability.
What are R-multiples in trading?
R-multiples measure returns relative to the risk you took. If you risked $100 (1R) and made $300, that's a 3R trade. This normalizes returns across different position sizes, making trades comparable. Professional traders think in R, not dollars.
How do I calculate maximum drawdown?
Maximum drawdown is the largest peak-to-trough decline in your account. Formula: (Peak Value - Trough Value) / Peak Value × 100. If your account went from $10,000 to $7,000 before recovering, your max drawdown was 30%.
What is the Sharpe ratio and why does it matter?
Sharpe ratio measures risk-adjusted return: (Average Return - Risk-Free Rate) / Standard Deviation of Returns. It tells you how much return you're getting per unit of risk. Higher is better. A Sharpe of 1.0+ is good; 2.0+ is excellent.
How many trades do I need for reliable metrics?
You need at least 30 trades for basic statistics to be somewhat reliable, but 100+ trades provides much more confidence. For strategy-specific metrics, you need 30+ trades per strategy. Be cautious about drawing conclusions from small samples.