Launch Types
IDO (Initial DEX Offering)
Pre-set price, limited allocation. Often requires staking/lottery. Can pump 5-50x on open, then usually retraces. Research launchpad reputation.
Airdrop
Free tokens to users. Usually dumps hard at launch as recipients sell. Can recover over time if product is good. Best to farm and sell, rebuy later.
Fair Launch
No pre-sale, no VC. Everyone starts equal. Extremely volatile at launch. Can be legitimate or rug pulls. DYOR carefully.
CEX Listing
Major exchange listing (Binance, Coinbase). Can pump hard on listing hype, then dump. "Buy the rumor, sell the news" often applies.
Evaluating Tokenomics
Key Metrics to Analyze
FDV vs Market Cap
High FDV with low market cap = massive dilution coming. Prefer FDV/MCap ratio under 10x.
Unlock Schedule
When do team/VC tokens unlock? Expect selling pressure at unlock dates. Check vesting cliffs.
Allocation
Team + investors > 50% is concerning. They're incentivized to dump on retail. Prefer community-heavy allocation.
Entry Timing
Typical Launch Price Action
Hours 0-4: Extreme volatility. Can pump 10x or dump 90%. Peak FOMO.
Days 1-7: Usually retraces from initial high. Airdrop dumping.
Weeks 1-4: Price discovery. Often finds bottom here.
Months 1-3: Unlocks start. More selling pressure.
Risk Management
Launch Trading Rules
- • Never more than 1-2% of portfolio per launch
- • Set exit targets BEFORE entering
- • Have stop losses (even if mental)
- • Don't FOMO if you miss the initial pump
- • Take profits on the way up—don't be greedy
Red Flags
Avoid If:
- • Anonymous team
- • No working product
- • >50% team/VC allocation
- • FDV > 20x initial market cap
- • Aggressive marketing, no substance
Positive Signs:
- • Doxxed, reputable team
- • Working product with users
- • Fair token distribution
- • Long vesting schedules
- • Strong technical backers
Interactive Launch Tracker
Explore upcoming token launches and evaluate their risk:
Launch Trading Tips
- • Research tokenomics before launch (unlock schedule, VC allocation)
- • Set strict position limits (1-2% of portfolio max)
- • Have exit targets before entering
- • Avoid FOMO, most launches dump
Related Articles
Frequently Asked Questions
Main types: IDOs (Initial DEX Offerings), airdrops (free tokens to users), fair launches (no pre-sale), and CEX listings. Each has different dynamics. IDOs have pre-set prices; airdrops often dump; fair launches are volatile; CEX listings can pump or dump.
Check: initial circulating supply vs FDV (high FDV with low float = danger), unlock schedule (when do VCs/team dump?), allocation (>50% to insiders is risky), and utility. Low float + high FDV means massive dilution coming.
Common reasons: Low float creates artificial scarcity, then unlocks hit. VC/team selling pressure. Airdrop recipients dump immediately. Hype fades after launch. Most tokens peak near launch and trend down as supply increases.
Rule of thumb: never more than 1-2% of portfolio on a single launch. These are extremely high-risk plays. Even with good analysis, launches can go to zero. Size for total loss being acceptable.
Usually better to wait. Most launches are overpriced due to hype. After initial dump (days to weeks), better entries appear. Exception: very strong fundamentals with good tokenomics. Even then, scale in rather than aping all at once.