What Is Long-Term Holder Supply?
Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply measures the total coins held by addresses that haven't moved their holdings in at least 155 days. This threshold (roughly 5 months) is based on statistical analysis showing that coins held beyond this period are significantly less likely to be sold, indicating genuine long-term conviction rather than short-term speculation.
How Long-Term Holder Supply Works
LTH supply oscillates cyclically: it increases during bear markets (holders refuse to sell, coins mature past 155 days) and decreases during bull markets (holders finally sell into strength, reducing the LTH pool). The rate of change matters more than the absolute level — rapid LTH supply decrease during a rally signals distribution acceleration.
Why It Matters for Traders
The LTH/STH (Short-Term Holder) supply ratio is a powerful cycle indicator. When LTH supply dominates and STH supply is low, the market is at or near a bear market bottom (most speculative holders have already sold). When STH supply increases rapidly (new buyers entering), the cycle is accelerating. The inflection point where LTH supply stops rising and starts declining often marks the beginning of the distribution phase.
