What Is MVRV?
MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) is an on-chain valuation metric that compares Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap. Realized cap values each coin at the price it last moved on-chain, effectively representing the aggregate cost basis of all holders.
How MVRV Works
- MVRV > 1 — Market value exceeds realized value; on average, holders are in profit
- MVRV > 3.5 — Historically signals market tops (extreme profit-taking zone)
- MVRV < 1 — Market value below realized value; on average, holders are underwater (historically marks bottoms)
Why It Matters for Traders
MVRV is one of the most historically reliable Bitcoin cycle indicators. It has accurately identified every major cycle top (MVRV > 3.5) and bottom (MVRV < 1) since 2011. While it doesn't provide precise timing, it establishes whether the market is in overvalued or undervalued territory — essential context for strategic positioning and risk management.