What Is HODL Waves?
HODL Waves visualize the age distribution of Bitcoin's UTXO set over time, creating a colorful stacked area chart. Each band represents coins of a specific age range (1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, etc.). When a band expands, more coins are entering that age range; when it contracts, coins are being spent.
How HODL Waves Works
The chart reveals cyclical patterns aligned with market cycles. During bear markets, warm-colored bands (young coins) contract and cool-colored bands (old coins) expand — indicating accumulation and holding. During bull markets, the process reverses: cool bands contract (old coins being sold) and warm bands expand (new coins entering circulation from transactions).
Why It Matters for Traders
HODL Waves provide a panoramic view of Bitcoin's supply lifecycle. The expansion of 1-year+ bands to all-time highs signals deep conviction and supply scarcity. The rapid expansion of 1-week to 1-month bands signals increased speculation and distribution. The inflection point where long-term holding begins declining and short-term turnover accelerates marks the transition from accumulation to distribution — a macro cycle signal.
